The economic indicator known as Gross Domestic Product (GDP) represents the dollar value of all purchased goods and services over the course of one year. It is comprised of purchases from all private and public consumption, including for-profit, nonprofit and government sectors.
There are four components that are added to calculate the GDP:
- Consumer spending
- Government spending
- Investment spending (this includes business, inventory, residential construction and public investment)
- Net exports (the value of goods exported minus the value of goods imported)
The government calculates and publishes the GDP rate on a quarterly basis and for the entire year.
What Affects GDP?
There are different ways GDP is measured, nominal and real. Nominal GDP refers to a straight calculation of raw data, while real GDP adjusts the calculation to include the impact of inflation.
When inflation increases, real GDP tends to rise; when prices drop, so does real GDP. Be aware that this adjustment can happen even when there is no change in the quantity of goods and services produced in the United States during that time frame.
A key component of the GDP calculation is net exports. This number rises when the country sells more goods and services to foreign countries than it buys from them. A trade surplus means the United States sells more than it purchases, which is a strong contributor to GDP. When the United States buys more foreign goods than it sells, this creates a trade deficit, which is a negative weight in the GDP calculation.
GDP also reflects demand. The dollar output of certain sectors and industries rises and falls based on the popularity of their products and services. For example, when a new product is well received, then those sales increase that sector’s contribution to GDP. This is a helpful measure because it enables companies to make better research and development decisions based on recent success. The same is true when a new product, or even an upgrade to a new product, does not increase sales.
What Does GDP Indicate?
GDP is the most common, broad-based measure used to monitor the country’s economic progress. When it is on the rise, the economy is considered to be growing. When GDP drops – even if it remains in positive territory – the economy is viewed as contracting. If GDP continues to slip quarter after quarter, this is an indicator that the economy might be in trouble and the Federal Reserve or Congress could consider altering monetary (interest rates) or fiscal (taxes and government spending) policy to inject cash into the nation’s financial system.
Technically, economists define a recession as a prolonged period of economic decline, often precipitated by two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.
This economic yardstick also is used to indicate a country’s general standard of living. The better a country is able to produce the goods and services that its residents and businesses use, the more that capital is infused back into the country. Therefore, higher GDP levels indicate a more prosperous country and relatively higher standard of living among its residents.
GDP doesn’t just gauge domestic economic health; it serves as a comparison measure to other countries. This is particularly important during periods of growth and decline because the United States can track how well it is responding to global economic factors relative to other countries.
Current Trendline
According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, first quarter real GDP closed at 3.1 percent. In the second quarter, real GDP fell to 2.0 percent. The advanced assessment for the third quarter of 2019 is 1.9 percent.